GROUND — Ground Truth · Indonesian SME Credit NPL 2026

Statistik Perbankan Indonesia · OJK Portal Data Small + Medium only · micro excluded April 2026 · Actual, not estimate

Of Indonesia's small & medium business credit —

0.00%

— has stopped performing. Rp 41.17 trillion of sour loans on Rp 847.2 trillion outstanding, measured from the regulator's own cube.

NPL = kurang lancar + diragukan + macet. Chain of actuals: 4.72 (Jun-25) → 4.85 (Jul-25) → 4.91 · 4.93 · 4.83 · 4.86 (Jan–Apr 26). Validated against OJK's published aggregates to rounding.

Remove the micro segment and the number gets worse, not better — micro is currently the cleanest tier. The problem sits with medium-sized enterprises, at 5.51% and never below 4.8% since 2021.

§1

How the number is made

SPI Tabel 3.21.a → portal cube

STEP 01

Split the book

Start from SPI Tabel 3.21.a — the only table splitting UMKM credit into micro / small / medium, with both outstanding balance and NPL, per bank group.

STEP 02

Sum the groups

Add state banks, regional development banks, national private banks and foreign branches into one national figure per segment.

STEP 03

Drop micro

The brief is small and medium only. Micro rows out.

STEP 04

Weight, don't average

Divide total bad loans by total outstanding. The small book is ~1.5× the medium book — a simple average of percentages would give the wrong answer.

VALIDATION — rebuilt totals vs SPI printed row: Rp 1,503,625 mrd = 1,503,625 NPL: 66,313 vs 66,314 (one miliar of rounding) 2026 cube vs OJK press: 4.59/4.67/4.59/4.62 = 4.60/4.68/4.60/4.62

§2

Five years of the series

2021 → April 2026

NPL % — small + medium, micro excluded

SME (K+M) Menengah Kecil Mikro (ref)

Medium is the persistent problem. Worst segment in every period since 2021, never below 4.8%, and 5.51% in April 2026. Most of that book sits with national private banks — about Rp 215 trillion of Rp 332 trillion — in larger single-borrower loans exposed to construction, wholesale trade and manufacturing.

Micro, though excluded, is the one to watch. It nearly doubled — 2.18% in 2021 to 4.31% now — as KUR loans age and pandemic-era restructuring winds down. Still the cleanest tier, but on its current path it crosses the small book. The gap micro creates in this report's headline is narrowing because micro keeps deteriorating. That is itself a signal.

§3

The micro paradox

April 2026 · per tier

BD = baki debet, outstanding balance, April 2026. Kecil Rp 507.6 T · Menengah Rp 339.6 T · Mikro Rp 658.2 T. Non-UMKM corporate credit runs 1.63% for scale.

Interactive — one filter, one finding

Remove micro

4.62%

All-UMKM NPL, April 2026. Micro's Rp 658 trillion included.

§5

The big-book league

Books ≥ Rp 30 T · Apr 2026

Ranked across all 34 provinces, Jawa Barat comes 7th worst — but everything above it is small. NTT holds Rp 7.5 trillion; Jabar holds Rp 88.4 trillion. Limit the comparison to SME books of Rp 30 trillion or more, and Jawa Barat stands alone at the top, 105 basis points clear of the next big book. It holds 10.4% of the country's SME loans and 13.8% of its SME bad loans.

§6

Momentum & the full ranking

Jan → Apr 2026

Big books, four months

worseninghealing

Jawa Barat worsened 34 basis points — the only big book deteriorating meaningfully. In money: its stock of bad SME loans grew ~Rp 450 miliar in four months, 5.24 → 5.69 trillion, with the medium segment doing the damage (7.51% → 8.31%).

DKI improved 61 points. The country's largest book is cleaning up. Jateng and Jatim were flat — for books that size, flat is healthy. Banten rose 66 points, still below national but the fastest riser in Java; worth checking again in three months.

The small-province extremes — NTT, Maluku, Sulawesi Barat — swing a full point on tiny bases. That is noise, not signal.

Δ = change Jan→Apr 2026 in basis points. Bars scaled to NTT's 8.35%. The 34 provinces sum back to the national figure — Rp 41.17 T of bad loans on Rp 847.2 T — exactly. A residual “Lainnya” bucket of Rp 23 miliar is excluded.

§7

The industry cut

Sector × quality · K+M only

National — sectors ≥ Rp 2 T, ranked

Construction is the worst sector at 9.92%, double the SME average — an Indonesia problem, not a Jabar one. Trade is the weight: Rp 391.8 trillion, nearly half the national book, supplying 50.5% of the national SME NPL stock. Agriculture is the cleanest large sector at 2.71% — remember that number.

Jawa Barat — gap vs national, pp

worse in Jabarcleaner

Manufacturing is the smoking gun: 9.34% vs 5.29% national, +4 points on the province's second-largest SME book, alone a quarter of Jabar's bad-loan stock. Agriculture runs twice its national rate. The clean spots are real too — education 0.70%, professional services 1.25%, healthcare 1.68%, all better than national. The consistency with the Bandung–Bekasi–Karawang manufacturing belt is our reading, not something the data states.

The engine cell

Medium-segment trade, West Java

Inside Jabar's medium segment: manufacturing 13.36%, construction 11.95%, trade 7.75%. The trade cell deserves the closest attention — it sits on the largest medium book in the province and it is accelerating. That single cell is the main engine behind Jabar's medium ratio moving 7.51 → 8.31.

6.30% → 7.75%

in four months

+145 bps

Rp 14.13 T medium-trade book

Mix or performance? — shift-share decomposition

axis zoomed — bars start at 4.4%

If each of Jabar's sectors performed at its national rate, the province's industry mix would produce just 5.12% — composition explains only a quarter-point. The remaining 1.32 points is the same industries performing worse inside West Java. The problem is local execution and local borrowers, not portfolio shape.

§8

The bottom line

for anyone lending into SME

4.86% — SME NPL, small and medium only, April 2026. An actual from the regulator's portal, not an estimate, drifting up ~25 bps a year.

Excluding micro raises the ratio. The risk sits in the medium segment at 5.51% — and micro is catching up fast.

Jawa Barat is the real finding. Worst big-book credit quality in the country, 6.44% and still deteriorating, its medium segment at 8.31% and accelerating. The volume stall since 2023 reads as deliberate risk retrenchment — and the province's clean 1.45% all-credit NPL is the corporate book masking the rot underneath.

By industry the problem has a name: manufacturing (+4 pp vs national) and medium-segment trade (+145 bps in four months). Shift-share says it's performance, not mix.

Underwrite West Java medium tickets to a visibly tougher standard, and overlay agriculture there despite its clean national profile.